Federal election markets open in March
The Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets will reopen on March for trading in four markets for the election to the 42nd Canadian parliament, scheduled for Monday October 19, 2015. While the election date is fixed by law, it is still possible that an earlier election is called. Nevertheless, the markets will be open on March 1 and thus allow up to 33 weeks of trading.
There will be four markets for the federal election: a market predicting the popular vote share of political parties (CA15PV); a market predicting the seats share of political parties in the House of Commons of Canada (CA15SM); a winner-takes-all market predicting which political party wins a plurality (the most seats) in the House of Commons; and lastly a winner-takes-all market predicting which political party will form a majority government and win 170 seats or more.
Trading is expected to be light during the spring and summer months. Trading volume tends to be highest in the six or seven weeks before the election.
Posted Thursday, February 19, 2015 at 11:00