This is the title of a
new research paper by Erik Snowberg,
Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. Prediction markets have been used
to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting
events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. Their paper (a contribution
to the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Forecasting, volume 2) show
how prediction markets can be used to uncover the economic model behind
forecasts as well as test existing economic models.