Canadian Federal Election 2021
Final Prediction, September 20, 2021

Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Popular Vote Share Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2021-09-17 through 2021-09-19
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Share [%]
CA21PV.LIB Liberal Party 33.71 33.1
CA21PV.CPC Conservative Party 32.09 31.5
CA21PV.NDP New Democratic Party 19.12 18.8
CA21PV.BLQ Bloc Québécois 6.32 6.2
CA21PV.GRN Green Party 3.43 3.4
CA21PV.OTR Other Parties and Independents 7.16 7.0

Graphs below show state of trading when markets closed.

Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Popular Vote Share Market (C) 2021 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 6 September 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 September 10 20 30 ¢ LIB CPC NDP BLQ GRN OTR Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Popular Vote Share Market (C) 2021 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party percentage share chart with current results overimposed on previous results. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 LIB 31.5% (33.1%) CPC 31.7% (34.3%) NDP 19.3% (16.0%) BLQ 6.7% (7.6%) GRN 3.6% (6.5%) OTR 7.2% (2.4%)
Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Seats Share Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2021-09-17 through 2021-09-19
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Share [%]
Predicted
Seats
CA21SM.LIB Liberal Party 46.76 45.8 154.7
CA21SM.CPC Conservative Party 34.84 34.1 115.2
CA21SM.NDP New Democratic Party 10.35 10.1 34.2
CA21SM.BLQ Bloc Québécois 9.22 9.0 30.5
CA21SM.GRN Green Party 0.72 0.7 2.4
CA21SM.OTR Other Parties and Independents 0.28 0.3 0.9

Graphs below show state of trading when markets closed.

Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Seats Share Market (C) 2021 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 6 September 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 September 10 20 30 40 50 ¢ LIB CPC NDP BLQ GRN OTR Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Seats Share Market (C) 2021 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a parliament-style seats share chart with current and previous shares. LIB 149 (157) CPC 119 (121) NDP 35 (24) BLQ 31 (32) GRN 3 (3) OTR 1 (0) 2021 (2019)
Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Parliamentary Plurality Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2021-09-17 through 2021-09-19
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Prob. [%]
CA21PL.LIB Liberal Plurality 87.18 85.3
CA21PL.CPC Conservative Plurality 13.75 13.5
CA21PL.NDP NDP Plurality 0.01 0.0
CA21PL.OTR Any other outcome 1.26 1.2

Graphs below show state of trading when markets closed.

Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Parliamentary Plurality Market (C) 2021 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 6 September 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 September 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ¢ LIB CPC NDP OTR LIB 86.0% CPC 12.8% NDP 0.0% OTR 1.2% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90
Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Majority Government Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2021-09-17 through 2021-09-19
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Prob. [%]
CA21MG.LIB Liberal Majority 14.59 14.5
CA21MG.CPC Conservative Majority 1.45 1.4
CA21MG.NDP NDP Majority 0.01 0.0
CA21MG.OTR Any other outcome 84.85 84.1

Graphs below show state of trading when markets closed.

Canadian Federal Election 2021 - Majority Government Market (C) 2021 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 6 September 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 September 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ¢ LIB CPC NDP OTR LIB 11.3% CPC 1.6% NDP 0.0% OTR 87.1% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90

Final predictions are based on actual trading during the last days before the election, not bid-ask midpoints that were used for continuously-updated information while markets were open for trading. The average trading prices do not need to add up to 100 cents exactly. In order to show percentage shares, the average trading prices are normalized to add to 100 percent. The number of predicted seats is based on 338 seats, shown without rounding. The time period for this "final prediction" includes the last three days before Election Day. For the 2021 federal election, the averaging period is Friday September 17 through Sunday September 19, 2021. The 44th Canadian parliament will have 338 seats (the same number as in 2019); 170 seats are required to form a majority government.