Canadian Federal Election 2019
Final Prediction, October 21, 2019

Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Popular Vote Share Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2019-10-18 through 2019-10-20
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Share [%]
CA19PV.LIB Liberal Party 32.12 32.1
CA19PV.CPC Conservative Party 31.48 31.5
CA19PV.NDP New Democratic Party 19.05 19.0
CA19PV.BLQ Bloc Québécois 6.36 6.4
CA19PV.GRN Green Party 7.71 7.7
CA19PV.OTR Other Parties and Independents 3.33 3.3
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Popular Vote Share Market (C) 2019 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 7 October 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 19 20 October 10 20 30 ¢ LIB CPC NDP BLQ GRN OTR Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Popular Vote Share Market (C) 2019 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party percentage share chart with current results overimposed on previous results. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 LIB 32.2% (39.5%) CPC 31.9% (31.9%) NDP 18.1% (19.7%) BLQ 6.4% (4.7%) GRN 8.0% (3.4%) OTR 3.4% (0.8%)
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Seats Share Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2019-10-18 through 2019-10-20
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Share [%]		 Predicted
Seats
CA19SM.LIB Liberal Party 40.18 39.6 133.8
CA19SM.CPC Conservative Party 37.84 37.3 126.0
CA19SM.NDP New Democratic Party 11.18 11.0 37.2
CA19SM.BLQ Bloc Québécois 10.43 10.3 34.7
CA19SM.GRN Green Party 1.16 1.1 3.9
CA19SM.OTR Other Parties and Independents 0.72 0.7 2.4
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Seats Share Market (C) 2019 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 7 October 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 19 20 October 10 20 30 40 50 ¢ LIB CPC NDP BLQ GRN OTR Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Seats Share Market (C) 2019 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a parliament-style seats share chart with current and previous shares. LIB 133 (184) CPC 128 (99) NDP 37 (44) BLQ 34 (10) GRN 4 (1) OTR 2 (0) 2019 (2015)
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Parliamentary Plurality Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2019-10-18 through 2019-10-20
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Prob. [%]
CA19PL.LIB Liberal Plurality 75.96 74.1
CA19PL.CPC Conservative Plurality 24.60 24.0
CA19PL.NDP NDP Plurality 0.21 0.2
CA19PL.OTR Any other outcome 1.70 1.7
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Parliamentary Plurality Market (C) 2019 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 7 October 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 19 20 October 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ¢ LIB CPC NDP OTR LIB 70.9% CPC 27.1% NDP 0.2% OTR 1.8% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Majority Government Market
Based on 3 days of trading from 2019-10-18 through 2019-10-20
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Prob. [%]
CA19MG.LIB Liberal Majority 12.45 12.2
CA19MG.CPC Conservative Majority 4.42 4.3
CA19MG.NDP NDP Majority 0.02 0.0
CA19MG.OTR Any other outcome 85.47 83.5
Canadian Federal Election 2019 - Majority Government Market (C) 2019 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 7 October 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 19 20 October 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ¢ LIB CPC NDP OTR LIB 11.7% CPC 6.0% NDP 0.0% OTR 82.3% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90

Final predictions are based on actual trading during the last days before the election, not bid-ask midpoints that were used for continuously-updated information while markets were open for trading. The average trading prices do not need to add up to 100 cents exactly. In order to show percentage shares, the average trading prices are normalized to add to 100 percent. The number of predicted seats is based on 338 seats, shown without rounding. The time period for this "final prediction" includes the last three days before Election Day. For the 2019 federal election, the averaging period is Friday October 18 through Sunday October 20, 2019. Ther 43rd Canadian parliament will have 338 seats (the same number as in 2015); 170 seats are required to form a majority government.