Canadian Federal Election 2019

Election Date: Monday, October 21, 2019
The election is over. Markets are closed.

Final Predictions, Election Day, October 21, 2019

Trading Statistics for the Final Day of Trading, October 20, 2019

Market Liquidation Information (updated Thursday, November 7, 2019)

It was announced today by Elections Canada that all three judicial recounts have been terminated. Thus the validated results published on the Elections Canada web site Election Results (CSV data file available here) were used today to liquidate the remaining popular vote share and seats share markets. The majority government and seats plurality markets had been liquidated previously.

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Official Election Information

Political Parties (currently represented in parliament)

Other Useful Information Sources About the Election


Other Sources

How did we do?

The traders on the prediction market correctly predicted a Liberal minority government, with an implied probability of a minority of 85% and an implied probability of a Liberal plurality of 74%. The seats plurality prediction was more accurate than other predictions, and the majority government prediciotn was very close to the CBC prediction (but slightly accurate). As far as the popular vote and seats share is concerned, the prediction market performed roughly as well as the CBC, but Prof Forunier's project provided the best seat projection by suggesting a wider gap betweeen Liberals and Conservatives than either the prediction markets or the CBC analysis.

Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors.

Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors.

Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors.

Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors.