Canadian Federal Election 2015
Final Prediction, October 19, 2015

Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Popular Vote Share Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2015-10-14 through 2015-10-18
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Share [%]
CA15PV.CPC Conservative Party 32.24 32.4
CA15PV.NDP New Democratic Party 19.31 19.4
CA15PV.LIB Liberal Party 39.19 39.3
CA15PV.BLQ Bloc Québécois 4.06 4.1
CA15PV.GRN Green Party 4.05 4.1
CA15PV.OTR Other Parties and Independents 0.78 0.8
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Popular Vote Share Market (C) 2015 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 5 October 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 October 10 20 30 40 ¢ CPC NDP LIB BLQ GRN OTR Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Popular Vote Share Market (C) 2015 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party percentage share chart with current results overimposed on previous results. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 CPC 32.4% (39.6%) NDP 19.4% (30.6%) LIB 39.3% (18.9%) BLQ 4.1% (6.1%) GRN 4.1% (3.9%) OTR 0.8% (0.9%)
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Seats Share Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2015-10-14 through 2015-10-18
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Share [%]		 Predicted
Seats
CA15SM.CPC Conservative Party 33.70 33.9 114.7
CA15SM.NDP New Democratic Party 19.78 19.9 67.3
CA15SM.LIB Liberal Party 43.24 43.5 147.2
CA15SM.BLQ Bloc Québécois 1.99 2.0 6.8
CA15SM.GRN Green Party 0.52 0.5 1.8
CA15SM.OTR Other Parties and Independents 0.09 0.1 0.3
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Seats Share Market (C) 2015 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 5 October 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 October 10 20 30 40 ¢ CPC NDP LIB BLQ GRN OTR Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Seats Share Market (C) 2015 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a parliament-style seats share chart with current and previous shares. CPC 115 (188) NDP 67 (109) LIB 147 (36) BLQ 7 (4) GRN 2 (1) OTR 0 (0) 2015 (2011)
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Parliamentary Plurality Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2015-10-14 through 2015-10-18
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Prob. [%]
CA15PL.CPC Conservative Plurality 20.49 20.3
CA15PL.NDP NDP Plurality 0.27 0.3
CA15PL.LIB Liberal Plurality 79.58 78.7
CA15PL.OTR Any other outcome 0.78 0.8
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Parliamentary Plurality Market (C) 2015 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 5 October 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 October 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ¢ CPC NDP LIB OTR CPC 20.3% NDP 0.3% LIB 78.7% OTR 0.8% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Majority Government Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2015-10-14 through 2015-10-18
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Prob. [%]
CA15MG.CPC Conservative Majority 2.98 2.8
CA15MG.NDP NDP Majority 0.20 0.2
CA15MG.LIB Liberal Majority 21.79 20.8
CA15MG.OTR Any other outcome 79.91 76.2
Canadian Federal Election 2015 - Majority Government Market (C) 2015 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 5 October 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 October 16 17 18 October 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 ¢ CPC NDP LIB OTR CPC 2.8% NDP 0.2% LIB 20.8% OTR 76.2% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90

Final predictions are based on actual trading during the last days before the election, not bid-ask midpoints that were used for continuously-updated information while markets were open for trading. The average trading prices do not need to add up to 100 cents exactly. In order to show percentage shares, the average trading prices are normalized to add to 100 percent. The number of predicted seats is based on 338 seats, shown without rounding. The time period for this "final prediction" includes three working days (Monday through Friday) plus any weekend days or statutory holidays that fall in between the working days. For the 2015 federal election, the averaging period is five days, running through October 14–18, 2015.

170 seats are required to form a majority government.

The 42nd Canadian parliament will have 338 seats, thirty more than the 308 in the last parliament. For comparison purposes, seats charts on this page have reallocated voting results from the 2011 election to the new electoral districts. Thus the seats distribution was adjusted to reflect 188 (+22) seats for the Conservative Party, 109 (+6) seats for the NDP, and 36 (+2) seats for the Liberal Party. The Bloc Québécois and Green Party seats remain unchanged.