British Columbia Provincial Election 2017
Final Prediction, May 9, 2017

B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Popular Vote Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2017-05-04 through 2017-05-08
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Share [%]
BC17PV.LIB B.C. Liberal Party 41.32 41.8
BC17PV.NDP New Democratic Party 38.49 38.9
BC17PV.GRN Green Party 16.57 16.8
BC17PV.CON Conservative Party 0.60 0.6
BC17PV.OTR Other Parties and Independents 1.89 1.9
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Popular Vote Market (C) 2017 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 25 April 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 May 10 20 30 40 ¢ LIB NDP GRN CON OTR B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Popular Vote Market (C) 2017 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party percentage share chart with current results overimposed on previous results. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 LIB 41.8% (44.1%) NDP 38.9% (39.7%) GRN 16.8% (8.1%) CON 0.6% (4.8%) OTR 1.9% (3.3%)
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Seats Share Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2017-05-04 through 2017-05-08
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Share [%]		 Predicted
Seats
BC17SM.LIB B.C. Liberal Party 48.16 49.5 43.1
BC17SM.NDP New Democratic Party 43.22 44.4 38.6
BC17SM.GRN Green Party 5.53 5.7 4.9
BC17SM.OTR Other Parties and Independents 0.38 0.4 0.3
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Seats Share Market (C) 2017 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 25 April 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 May 10 20 30 40 50 ¢ LIB NDP GRN OTR B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Seats Share Market (C) 2017 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a parliament-style seats share chart with current and previous shares. LIB 43 (49) NDP 39 (34) GRN 5 (1) OTR 0 (1) 2017 (2013)
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Majority Government Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2017-05-04 through 2017-05-08
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price		 Predicted
Prob. [%]
BC17MG.LIB B.C. Liberal Majority 54.28 53.6
BC17MG.NDP NDP Majority 27.29 26.9
BC17MG.OTR Any other outcome 19.74 19.5
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Majority Government Market (C) 2017 Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets. This is a multi-party price chart. 25 April 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 May 10 20 30 40 50 60 ¢ LIB NDP OTR LIB 53.6% NDP 26.9% OTR 19.5% 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90

Final predictions are based on actual trading during the last days before the election, not bid-ask midpoints that were used for continuously-updated charts while markets were open for trading. The average trading prices do not need to add up to 100 cents exactly. In order to show percentage shares, the average trading prices are normalized to add to 100 percent. The number of predicted seats is based on 87 seats. The time period for this "final prediction" includes three working days (Monday through Friday) plus any weekend days or statutory holidays that fall in between the working days. For the BC 2017 election, the averaging period is five days.