B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Popular Vote Market Based on 5 days of trading from 2017-05-04 through 2017-05-08 |
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Symbol | Contract | Avg. Price |
Predicted Share [%] |
BC17PV.LIB | B.C. Liberal Party | 41.32 | 41.8 |
BC17PV.NDP | New Democratic Party | 38.49 | 38.9 |
BC17PV.GRN | Green Party | 16.57 | 16.8 |
BC17PV.CON | Conservative Party | 0.60 | 0.6 |
BC17PV.OTR | Other Parties and Independents | 1.89 | 1.9 |
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Seats Share Market Based on 5 days of trading from 2017-05-04 through 2017-05-08 |
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Symbol | Contract | Avg. Price |
Predicted Share [%] |
PredictedSeats |
BC17SM.LIB | B.C. Liberal Party | 48.16 | 49.5 | 43.1 |
BC17SM.NDP | New Democratic Party | 43.22 | 44.4 | 38.6 |
BC17SM.GRN | Green Party | 5.53 | 5.7 | 4.9 |
BC17SM.OTR | Other Parties and Independents | 0.38 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
B.C. Provincial Election 2017 - Majority Government Market Based on 5 days of trading from 2017-05-04 through 2017-05-08 |
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---|---|---|---|
Symbol | Contract | Avg. Price |
Predicted Prob. [%] |
BC17MG.LIB | B.C. Liberal Majority | 54.28 | 53.6 |
BC17MG.NDP | NDP Majority | 27.29 | 26.9 |
BC17MG.OTR | Any other outcome | 19.74 | 19.5 |
Final predictions are based on actual trading during the last days before the election, not bid-ask midpoints that were used for continuously-updated charts while markets were open for trading. The average trading prices do not need to add up to 100 cents exactly. In order to show percentage shares, the average trading prices are normalized to add to 100 percent. The number of predicted seats is based on 87 seats. The time period for this "final prediction" includes three working days (Monday through Friday) plus any weekend days or statutory holidays that fall in between the working days. For the BC 2017 election, the averaging period is five days.