Federal election markets open in March
The Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets will reopen on
March for trading in four markets for the election to the 42nd
Canadian parliament, scheduled for Monday October 19, 2015.
While the election date is fixed by law, it is still possible
that an earlier election is called. Nevertheless, the markets will
be open on March 1 and thus allow up to 33 weeks of trading.
There will be four markets for the federal election: a
market predicting the popular vote share of political parties
(CA15PV); a market predicting the seats share of political parties
in the House of Commons of Canada (CA15SM); a winner-takes-all
market predicting which political party wins a plurality (the most
seats) in the House of Commons; and lastly a winner-takes-all
market predicting which political party will form a majority
government and win 170 seats or more.
Trading is expected to be light during the spring and summer months.
Trading volume tends to be highest in the six or seven weeks before the