The Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets have opend for trading for the May 9, 2017 provincial election in British Columbia. Will the markets this time predict the outcome of the election more accurately than in 2013? At that time, traders followed the polls quite closely, but the polls were off, as was the market.
Prediction markets are forward-looking in nature. Unlike polls that report their results based on interviews conducted over the last few days, prediction markets reflect all available news and anticipate evolving trends. Of course, if the best available information is distorted and incomplete, traders' prediction may be off as well.
This year's prediction market will likely be the last. As my time budget is increasingly constrained by administrative duties, I simply lack the time to pursue this research project further. The new batch of data expected from the 2017 election will allow me to pursue one last research project related to prediction markets.
A warm welcome to all new traders as well as returning traders. Let the election predictions begin!