Election Date: Monday, October 19, 2015
The election is over. Markets are closed.
Trading Statistics for the Final Day of Trading, October 18, 2015
Market Liquidation Information (updated Monday, November 9, 2015)
All four markets for the Canadian federal election 2015 have now been liquidated. Five judicial recounts were completed without change in the seats won by individual parties. However, validated results for the popular vote are slightly different from the preliminary (election night) results, and thus the preliminary liquidation values have changes minutely. For detailed results, please refer to the official Elections Canada results spreadsheet. For details about the process of liquidating the prediction markets, please refer to our policies page for more information on rules governing market liquidation. Also see section 1.5 "Contract Liquidation" in the user guide for traders. All funds received by investors have now been transferred to our bank account and are ready for disbursements. There are no limits on divestments at this point.
How did we do?
The predictions from the markets were the most accurate and outperformed all pollsters with their latest predictions on October 17 or October 18, as well as the poll-tracking by the Globe and Mail. The markets also beat the Globe and Mail prediction of the seats market share, but not by much. Both had very large errors overall as both predicted a Liberal minority but not a Liberal majority. Traders correctly predicted a Liberal plurality, but the probablity of a Liberal majority was only put at 20.8%. The Globe and Mail forecast put the probaility of a Liberal majority at 18%, less than the prediction markets. Again, our traders did better, but not by much. However, both the CVM Marketing prediction model and the Vox Pop Labs models performed better. CVM Marketing was the only one to correctly predict a Liberal majority.
|Comparison of Popular Vote Share Predictions|
|Nanos Research, Oct.18||30.5||19.7||39.1||5.5||4.6||0.6||4.0|
|Forum Research, Oct.18||30||20||40||6||3||1||4.6|
|Vox Pop Labs 5||32||20.4||36.7||5.2||4||1.5||5.4|
|Ipsos Reid, Oct.17||31||22||38||4||4||1||6.2|
|Globe and Mail 2||30||21.7||37.2||4.9||4.4||0.9||7.5|
|Comparison of Seats Share Predictions|
|CVM Marketing 4||115||44||178||1||0||0||32.0|
|Vox Pop Labs 5||120||50||160||7||1||0||54.0|
|Globe and Mail 2||118||66||146||7||1||0||82.0|
Official Election Information
Political Parties (currently represented in parliament)
Other Useful Information Sources About the Election