British Columbia Provincial Election 2017

Election Date: Tuesday, May 9, 2017.
The election is over. Markets are closed.

Final Predictions, Election Day, May 9, 2017

Trading Statistics for the Final Day of Trading, May 8, 2017

Market Liquidation Information (updated Wednesday, May 24, 2017)

The three markets for the B.C. provincial election 2017 are maturing pending the announcement of the final election results by Elections BC. Today Elections BC announced the final count after completing counting of absentee ballots. According to today's announcement, the original seat count of 43-41-3 remains unchanged. Popular vote shares have been adjusted slightly, and this is now reflected in the liquidation prices.

It is possible that even after the final counts are announced, the closeness of the result in some ridings may trigger further judicial recounts. At the time of the final count, the smallest gap is now in the riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain with 87 votes. The previously close race of Courtenay-Comox has now a difference of 189 votes, and Richmond-Queensborough hs a lead of 134 votes. None of the trigger an automatic judicial recount. However, candidates or voters may also ask for a judicial recount if ballots were not counted correctly, or if a ballot account does not accurately record the votes cast for a candidate. The market director will wait six days until after the declaration of official election results today, as applications for judicial recounts can made during that period. If no applications for recounts are made, market liquidation will take place swiftly thereafter.

As the market director is away on conference travel next week and there remains the possibility of judicial recounts, liquidation will likely occur in the June 5-9, 2017 week. Our apologies for the delay! For details about the process of liquidating the prediction markets, please refer to our policies page for more information on rules governing market liquidation. Also see section 1.5 "Contract Liquidation" in the user guide for traders. Please watch this space for further updates.

How did we do? [updated May 24, 2017]

The predictions from the markets for the popular vote were the most accurate and outperformed all five polls with their latest predictions in the days beefore the election. At this point, it looks as if the predictio market is at par with the prediction from the CBC Poll Tracker, although this result may still change dependin on the outcome of the recounts. How our traders performed with respect to the majority government prediction is still uncertain as well. Our traders predcited a roughly 80% probability of a liberal majority or a hung parliament, and either of these two outcomes is still possible at this point, while an NDP majority is out of reach. Overall, traders on the Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets did very well.

Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors. 2 provided by Eric Grenier (CBC Poll Tracker 2017 British Columbia election).

Notes: 1 sum of absolute errors. 2 provided byEric Grenier.


Official Election Information

Political Parties

Other Useful Information Sources About the Election