British Columbia Provincial Election 2013
Final Prediction, May 14, 2013

B.C. Provincial Election 2013 - Popular Vote Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2013-05-09 through 2013-05-13
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Share [%]
BC13PV.LIB B.C. Liberal Party 36.38 36.6
BC13PV.NDP New Democratic Party 43.49 43.7
BC13PV.GRN Green Party 11.11 11.3
BC13PV.CON Conservative Party 5.98 6.2
BC13PV.OTR Other Parties and Independents 1.99 2.2
B.C. Provincial Election 2013 - Seats Share Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2013-05-09 through 2013-05-13
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Share [%]
Predicted
Seats
BC13SM.LIB B.C. Liberal Party 35.63 35.5 30.2
BC13SM.NDP New Democratic Party 61.05 60.9 51.8
BC13SM.GRN Green Party 1.31 1.2 1.0
BC13SM.CON Conservative Party 0.81 0.7 0.6
BC13SM.OTR Other Parties and Independents 1.74 1.6 1.4
B.C. Provincial Election 2013 - Majority Government Market
Based on 5 days of trading from 2013-05-09 through 2013-05-13
Symbol Contract Avg.
Price
Predicted
Prob. [%]
BC13MG.LIB B.C. Liberal Majority 10.04 8.9
BC13MG.NDP NDP Majority 89.74 88.6
BC13MG.OTR Any other outcome 3.60 2.5

Final predictions are based on actual trading during the last days before the election, not bid-ask midpoints that were used for continuously-updated charts published on our media partner's web site. The average trading prices do not need to add up to 100 cents exactly. In order to show percentage shares, the average trading prices are normalized to add to 100 percent. The number of predicted seats is based on 85 seats, shown without rounding. The time period for this "final prediction" includes three working days (Monday through Friday) plus any weekend days or statutory holidays that fall in between the working days. For the BC 2013 election, the averaging period is five days.